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The Effect of Climate Change on MIRCA Crops

Presenters Name: 
Rodas Addis
Co Presenters Name: 
Primary Research Mentor: 
Deborah Lawrence
Secondary Research Mentor: 
11:00 - 12:15
Time of Presentation: 
2019 - 11:00am to 12:15pm
Newcomb Hall Ballroom
Presentation Type: 
Presentations Academic Category: 
Grant Program Recipient: 
USOAR Program

As the rippling effects of global warming are becoming more and more imminent, the implications of its effects will impact a plethora of industries. In our study, we examined when MIRCA crops would begin to fail and experience stunted growth in a region consisting of 9 countries in East Africa. MIRCA crops are broad categories for species of crop types; the 15 MIRCA crops of our study were chosen on the basis of how much land area they acquired in the countries of our region. Through the use of scientific databases (FAO, World Bank, and Carbon Brief), temperature projections at various RCP levels (trajectories at varying temperature extremities) were generated in decadal brackets from 2020-2099 for each country. In addition, a compilation of temperature threshold ranges for each crop, acquired from literature, was used to predict when each crop would begin to fail. Our results show that certain crop types, such as wheat, will begin to fail as early as 2020 in much of the region. The selected MIRCA crops are crucial to the agricultural industries in the region of study, if action is not taken to combat the threats of climate change, rural farmers and the citizens alike will suffer.